Issue Brief
Vol.161, No.23, 2026
The International Order in Great Transformation: Peaceful Coexistence Strategy and Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula
- Date
- 2026-10-19
- Authors
- Ki-jung Kim
- Keyword
- ISSN
- 3140-4243(Online)
-
abstract
- This paper diagnoses the geopolitical risks facing the Korean Peninsula amid a great transformation of the world order marked by intensifying U.S.-China rivalry and the retreat of multilateralism. In response to these risks, it presents a multifaceted strategy for peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula and measures to build a sustainable peace regime. The world now finds itself in a "21st-century interregnum," in which existing multilateral regimes are weakening, great powers are redrawing their spheres of influence, nationalism is resurging, and supply chain restructuring has become a point of contention. These discursive and structural shifts have coincided with the military alignment between North Korea and Russia, the strengthening of North Korea-China relations, the loss of inter-Korean communication channels, and the entrenchment of a "hostile two-state relationship." Together, they have made the Korean Peninsula issue considerably harder to resolve. However, the "three-part blueprint" announced in 2026 for inclusive, stable, and responsible peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula, together with the emerging possibility of North Korea-U.S. dialogue, offer a new opportunity to break the deadlock. Sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula is difficult to achieve through any single approach; it requires a close combination of realist deterrence, liberal cooperation, and middle-ground arms control. On this premise, the paper proposes a peace regime that begins with a declaration on the "termination of belligerency." The proposed regime integrates inter-Korean agreements on political and military confidence-building as well as economic exchange with international endorsement. For its implementation, the paper moves away from a single-track approach centered on denuclearization and presents a tailored engagement strategy that pursues two tracks in parallel: a security track aimed at the phased reduction of the North Korean nuclear threat (halt → control → phased disarmament) and a peace economy track aimed at forming a single economic sphere. South Korea should act as an active "pacemaker" and agenda-setter in the North Korea-U.S. dialogue process. At the same time, it should secure diplomatic space in its relations with China and Russia and pursue multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia while firmly maintaining the ROK-U.S. alliance, thereby taking the lead in realizing peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula.
